NBA Tank Watch
2026 Draft Pick Tracker - Teams with incentive to lose
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Tank Rankings
Teams ranked by worst record that control their 2026 first-round pick
| Rank | Team | Record | Win% | Pick Status | Top-1 Odds | Top-4 Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Sacramento Kings | 12-40 | 0.231 | Own Pick | 14.0% | 52.1% | Worst record in NBA. Maximum lottery odds. |
| #2 | Indiana Pacers | 13-38 | 0.255 | 1-4 and 10-30 | 14.0% | 52.1% | Only lose pick if it lands 5-9. Incentive to be historically bad for top-4 safety. |
| #3 | Brooklyn Nets | 13-37 | 0.260 | Own Pick | 14.0% | 52.1% | Full rebuild mode. Waived Cam Thomas. |
| #4 | Washington Wizards | 14-36 | 0.280 | top-8 | 12.5% | 48.1% | Currently safe. Added Anthony Davis. |
| #5 | Utah Jazz | 16-36 | 0.308 | top-8 | 10.5% | 42.1% | Acquired Jaren Jackson Jr. May improve. |
| #6 | Dallas Mavericks | 19-32 | 0.373 | Own Pick | 9.0% | 37.2% | Traded Anthony Davis. Full tank. Also receiving OKC 2026 1st. |
| #7 | Milwaukee Bucks | 20-29 | 0.408 | Swap Rights | 7.5% | 31.9% | Kept Giannis. Hawks can swap if their pick is worse. |
| #8 | Memphis Grizzlies | 20-29 | 0.408 | Swap Rights | 6.0% | 26.2% | Traded JJJ. Holds swap rights with multiple teams. |
| #9 | Portland Trail Blazers | 23-28 | 0.451 | top-14 | 4.5% | 20.3% | Very generous protection. Almost certain to keep pick. |
| #10 | Charlotte Hornets | 24-28 | 0.462 | Own Pick | 3.0% | 14.0% | Acquired Coby White. Building young core. |
| #11 | Chicago Bulls | 24-28 | 0.462 | Own Pick | 2.0% | 9.5% | Major seller at deadline. Traded Vucevic, Huerter, Dosunmu, White. |
| #12 | Miami Heat | 27-26 | 0.509 | Own Pick | 1.5% | 7.2% | Fringe playoff team. Pick likely late lottery or playoff range. |
| #13 | Golden State Warriors | 28-24 | 0.538 | Own Pick | 1.0% | 4.8% | Added Porzingis. Contending but aging roster. |
| #14 | Toronto Raptors | 31-22 | 0.585 | Own Pick | 0.5% | 2.4% | Playoff contender. Pick will be late 1st round. |
| #15 | Los Angeles Lakers | 31-19 | 0.620 | Own Pick | - | - | Contending. Pick will be late 1st round. |
| #16 | Denver Nuggets | 33-19 | 0.635 | Own Pick | - | - | Contending. Late 1st rounder. |
| #17 | New York Knicks | 33-19 | 0.635 | Own Pick | - | - | Also could receive Wizards pick if it falls outside top 8. |
| #18 | Boston Celtics | 34-18 | 0.654 | Own Pick | - | - | Title contender. Added Vucevic. Pick will be ~28-30. |
| #19 | San Antonio Spurs | 35-16 | 0.686 | Swap Rights | - | - | Can swap with Hawks. Contending around Wemby. |
| #20 | Detroit Pistons | 38-13 | 0.745 | Swap Rights | - | - | Best record in East. Pick will be 28-30. Has swap with Wolves. |
| #21 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 40-12 | 0.769 | Own Pick | - | - | Best record in NBA. Collects best of own, Rockets (top-4 prot), Clippers picks. |
Top 5 Tank Teams - Discord Alert Targets
These teams trigger Tank Fade Alerts when leading by 10+ points
Record: 12-40 (0.231)
Top-1 Odds: 14.0%
Top-4 Odds: 52.1%
Pick Status:
Own Pick
Worst record in NBA. Maximum lottery odds.
Record: 13-38 (0.255)
Top-1 Odds: 14.0%
Top-4 Odds: 52.1%
Pick Status:
1-4 and 10-30 (Safe)
Only lose pick if it lands 5-9. Incentive to be historically bad for top-4 safety.
Record: 13-37 (0.260)
Top-1 Odds: 14.0%
Top-4 Odds: 52.1%
Pick Status:
Own Pick
Full rebuild mode. Waived Cam Thomas.
Record: 14-36 (0.280)
Top-1 Odds: 12.5%
Top-4 Odds: 48.1%
Pick Status:
top-8 (Safe)
Currently safe. Added Anthony Davis.
Record: 16-36 (0.308)
Top-1 Odds: 10.5%
Top-4 Odds: 42.1%
Pick Status:
top-8 (Safe)
Acquired Jaren Jackson Jr. May improve.
No Tank Incentive
Teams with traded picks or no meaningful protection benefit from losing
| Team | Record | Win% | Pick Goes To | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 13-40 | 0.245 | Hawks or Bucks | 2nd worst record but no pick. Tragic scenario. |
| LA Clippers | 23-27 | 0.460 | Thunder / Sixers / Mavericks | Pick goes to OKC/PHI/DAL pool. No incentive. |
| Orlando Magic | 26-24 | 0.520 | Grizzlies or Hornets | Playoff contender anyway. |
| Atlanta Hawks | 26-27 | 0.491 | Swap: Spurs | Spurs can take the better of own/Hawks pick. |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 29-22 | 0.569 | Thunder (if outside top 4) | Only keep if top 4. Unlikely to be that bad. |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 31-21 | 0.596 | Swap: Jazz/Hawks | Contending. Swap unlikely to matter much. |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 32-20 | 0.615 | Swap: Jazz/Pistons | Contending. Swap rights in play. |
| Houston Rockets | 31-19 | 0.620 | Thunder/Sixers/Mavs | Contending. Pick almost certainly conveying. |
| Phoenix Suns | 31-21 | 0.596 | Wizards / Grizzlies / Hornets | Contending. Pick goes elsewhere. |
Key Betting Insights
Top-5 tank teams (Sacramento, Indiana, Brooklyn, Washington, Utah) have strong incentive to lose. When leading by 10+ points:
- Coaches rest starters
- Young players make mistakes
- Organization has no incentive to close out wins
- Live bet on the opponent (the "fade")
Teams near their protection boundary create the most volatile betting scenarios:
- Indiana (5-9 danger): Unique protection - only lose pick if 5-9
- Washington (top-8): Currently safe but could slip out
- Utah (top-8): JJJ acquisition could push them out of range
- A win streak could push a team out of protection and fundamentally change their motivation
Legend
Red rows = Top 5 tank teams (Discord alert targets) | Yellow rows = Protection danger zone | Green badge = Own pick outright | Yellow badge = Protected (safe) | Red badge = Protected (danger zone)